By Kevin Brown | Equity Analyst
U.S. Real Estate Outlook
After falling in the first quarter due to pressure from rising interest rates, the U.S. real estate market performed in line with the broader U.S. market in the second quarter. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased rapidly at the start of the year but has stayed near the 2.85% rate since mid-February, bringing relative stability to real estate stocks. Given the circumstances, many investors wonder whether we are near the peak of the commercial real estate cycle—higher interest rates could pressure growth rates, cap rates, return expectations, and ultimately asset prices. Also, to the extent that low interest rates have steered investors searching for higher yield and capital preservation toward REITs, the same funds could flow out of REITs if interest rates rise, further pressuring commercial real estate valuations.